Over the last two decades, Russia and China have developed well-institutionalized political and military consultation mechanisms. There is little evidence of continued expansion since 2020 in either military-technical cooperation or joint military activities. Despite a number of rhetorical flourishes at leadership summits, after undergoing a period of rapid expansion from 2014 to 2019, Russian-Chinese military cooperation has largely plateaued in recent years. This unevenness in the dynamic of cooperation growth has been most notable in military-technical cooperation and in joint exercises and operations, while the expansion of political consultations and military diplomacy has been more constant. At other points, previously growing areas have in turn plateaued. At various points, some aspects have undergone periods of rapid expansion, while others contracted. Russian-Chinese military cooperation has not always grown linearly. This examination allows for a more fine-grained analysis of developments in Russian-Chinese military cooperation. In addition, by examining components of military cooperation, we can identify specific areas where it is developing faster or slower than the overall average. This methodology allowed us to not only estimate the current level of overall military cooperation between Russia and China, but also to analyze its recent course and thereby estimate its potential future trajectory. We adapted a scale that assesses levels of military cooperation based on seven issue areas, ranging from the establishment of mechanisms of regular consultation at the low end to the adoption of a common defense policy at the most advanced end. We included earlier cooperation where relevant and also included some important developments between November 2022 and February 2023. Our analysis primarily covers the period from 2014 to November 2022. Using a comprehensive collection of Russian- and Chinese-language media reporting and technical articles on bilateral military ties, we analyzed key bilateral agreements and official statements, all major arms sales and other forms of military-technical cooperation, exchanges of military personnel for education and training, joint military exercises and operations, and other relevant military-to-military engagements. Our goal is to provide an analysis of the dynamic of the cooperative relationship in the period since 2014, including a discussion of what the relationship allows the two partners to accomplish together that they cannot do alone, and what analysts can infer about where this bilateral relationship is headed. To do so, we focused on measuring military cooperation, specifically on military diplomacy and other political aspects of the defense relationship, military-technical cooperation, and exercises and joint operations. This article summarizes a CNA report that tested this proposition. Moreover, the two countries had a record of cooperation dating back to the early 1990s that could serve as a basis for expanded cooperation. Xi Jinping’s rise to power also has contributed to a deepening of the partnership, as China under Xi shares President Vladimir Putin’s concern with regime security and the two leaders increasingly align on issues of global and regional security. China was the obvious candidate because it had a suitably large economy, was friendly to Russia, and was not planning to impose sanctions in response to the 2014 invasion of Ukraine. The strategic partnership, first established in 2001, was boosted in the mid-2010s by Russian leaders’ belief that Russia needed to seek out alternative relationships to survive its sudden confrontation with the West. interests and potentially working in concert to attack U.S allies. military planning more challenging, but also because it raises the possibility of two formidable adversaries joining forces to counter U.S. The specter of a Russian-Chinese partnership is deeply threatening to the United States, not only because it makes U.S. There is widespread consensus among analysts that, although Russia and China have been moving toward closer cooperation through the entire post-Soviet era, the trend has accelerated rapidly since 2014.
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